05:42 pm:
For our future reference. RISK probabilities (per attack), with the rules you get when you open the box. These were done stochastically, so forgive any minor inaccuracies (and be amazed by any large inaccuracies)
3v2 3v1 2v2 2v1 1v2 1v1
37.0% (tie 33.7%) 66.0% 22.7% (tie 32.5%) 57.9% 25.5% 41.9%
fortified 18.9% (tie 31.4%) 49.0% 10.1% (tie 24.7%) 41.8% 14.1% 27.8%
bunker 24.1% (tie 40.8%) 49.3% 14.5% (tie 32.2%) 41.9% 14.0% 27.9%
fortified bunker 10.8% (tie 33.8%) 33.4% 5.7% (tie 21.9%) 26.8% 6.4% 16.6%
ammo shortage 50.8% (tie 30.7%) 82.5% 31.3% (tie 37.3%) 74.4% 41.9% 58.4%
fortified ammo shortage 27.4% (tie 33.2%) 65.8% 14.7% (tie 32.0%) 57.8% 25.6% 41.8%
bunker ammo shortage 37.1% (tie 33.7%) 66.0% 22.7% (tie 32.5%) 58.0% 25.6% 41.8%
fortified bunker ammo shortage 18.8% (tie 31.3%) 49.3% 10.2% (tie 24.5%) 41.4% 13.9% 27.9%
1st at enclave 43.1% (tie 38.2%) 82.7% 31.4% (tie 37.5%) 74.6% 25.3% 58.3%
fortified 1st at enclave 23.9% (tie 40.5%) 65.8% 14.6% (tie 32.1%) 58.0% 14.0% 41.9%
bunker 1st at enclave 26.5% (tie 52.3%) 65.9% 19.3% (tie 45.2%) 58.0% 13.9% 42.0%
fortified bunker 1st at enclave 12.8% (tie 49.3%) 49.5% 7.9% (tie 34.3%) 41.6% 6.4% 28.0%
ammo shortage 1st at enclave 61.9% (tie 25.5%) 92.3% 44.7% (tie 32.4%) 86.1% 42.2% 72.0%
fortified ammo shortage 1st at enclave 37.2% (tie 33.6%) 82.5% 22.7% (tie 32.4%) 74.7% 25.6% 58.3%
bunker ammo shortage 1st at enclave 43.1% (tie 38.3%) 82.8% 31.5% (tie 37.3%) 74.7% 25.7% 58.5%
fortified bunker ammo shortage 1st at enclave 24.0% (tie 41.0%) 66.0% 14.8% (tie 32.0%) 57.9% 13.9% 41.7%
I worked this out with a program today. Yes, I am trying to relax. Why are you looking at me strangely.
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